:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2020 Oct 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 30-Nov 01 2020 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 30-Nov 01 2020

            Oct 30     Oct 31     Nov 01
00-03UT        3          2          3     
03-06UT        3          1          3     
06-09UT        2          1          4     
09-12UT        2          1          3     
12-15UT        2          1          2     
15-18UT        1          1          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01 Nov due to the arrival of
a CME from 27 Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2020

              Oct 30  Oct 31  Nov 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2020

              Oct 30        Oct 31        Nov 01
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on 30
Oct - 01 Nov due to potential flare activity from Regions 2778 and 2779.