:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Sep 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2022

            Sep 27     Sep 28     Sep 29
00-03UT        4          3          2     
03-06UT        4          3          2     
06-09UT        3          2          2     
09-12UT        3          2          1     
12-15UT        2          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          0     
18-21UT        2          1          1     
21-00UT        3          2          1     

Rationale: There is a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm early on 27 Sep as a transient feature, likely one of the CMEs
from 23 Sep, passes Earth.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022

              Sep 27  Sep 28  Sep 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022

              Sep 27        Sep 28        Sep 29
R1-R2           30%           30%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
activity through 29 Sep.