:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2020 Feb 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2020 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23-Feb 25 2020

            Feb 23     Feb 24     Feb 25
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        3          2          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          3     
18-21UT        2          3          2     
21-00UT        2          2          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2020

              Feb 23  Feb 24  Feb 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2020

              Feb 23        Feb 24        Feb 25
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.