:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2023 Jan 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 27-Jan 29 2023 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 27-Jan 29 2023 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 00-03UT 2.67 2.00 1.67 03-06UT 3.00 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 2.00 2.00 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 2.33 1.33 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 2.00 1.33 18-21UT 1.00 2.33 1.67 21-00UT 1.33 2.33 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2023 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 26 2023 1306 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2023 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 R1-R2 25% 20% 10% R3 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on Jan 27, with a slight chance on Jan 28-29, from a region that has rotated around the west limb.