:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2022 Dec 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 04-Dec 06 2022 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 04-Dec 06 2022 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 00-03UT 2.00 2.00 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 1.67 06-09UT 1.33 1.67 1.67 09-12UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 1.67 1.00 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 0.67 0.67 18-21UT 1.67 1.00 1.33 21-00UT 3.00 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 04-Dec 06 2022 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 03 2022 1741 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 04-Dec 06 2022 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts from M-class flare activity will persist through the forecast period mainly due to the potential exhibited by Regions 3153 and 3155 as well as the recent history of Region 3157.