:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 May 26 0040 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 26-May 28 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 26-May 28 2022

            May 26     May 27     May 28
00-03UT        2          3          3     
03-06UT        2          4          3     
06-09UT        2          4          2     
09-12UT        1          3          3     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        4          2          3     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 26-May 28 2022

              May 26  May 27  May 28
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 25 2022 1824 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 26-May 28 2022

              May 26        May 27        May 28
R1-R2           30%           20%           15%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.