:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2019 Oct 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2019

            Oct 23     Oct 24     Oct 25
00-03UT        1          2          4     
03-06UT        0          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        0          2          4     
09-12UT        0          3          4     
12-15UT        2          4          4     
15-18UT        1          4          4     
18-21UT        1          4          3     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 24-25 Oct due to
the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2019

              Oct 23  Oct 24  Oct 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2019

              Oct 23        Oct 24        Oct 25
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.