:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Mar 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 23-Mar 25 2023 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 23-Mar 25 2023

             Mar 23       Mar 24       Mar 25
00-03UT       1.33         5.33 (G1)    3.67     
03-06UT       1.67         5.67 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       3.67         6.00 (G2)    4.33     
09-12UT       4.00         4.33         4.00     
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         4.00     
15-18UT       3.00         4.00         4.00     
18-21UT       4.00         3.00         4.33     
21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    3.33         4.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected following the possible
glancing influence of the 20 Mar CME or the anticipated earlier arrival
of a CIR ahead of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Nearby
transients may further elevate conditions on the 23rd depending on how
they interact with this enhanced solar wind environment. G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels are likely to be reached on 24 Mar with the
onset of the CH HSS. G1 (Minor) storm levels remain likely into 25 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 23-Mar 25 2023

              Mar 23  Mar 24  Mar 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 23-Mar 25 2023

              Mar 23        Mar 24        Mar 25
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts over
23-25 Mar.