:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2020 Sep 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 29-Oct 01 2020 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 29-Oct 01 2020

            Sep 29     Sep 30     Oct 01
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     4     
03-06UT        3          5 (G1)     4     
06-09UT        3          4          4     
09-12UT        3          3          4     
12-15UT        4          3          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        4          2          2     
21-00UT        6 (G2)     4          2     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on days
one and two (29-30 Sep) due to CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2020

              Sep 29  Sep 30  Oct 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2020

              Sep 29        Sep 30        Oct 01
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.