:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2019 Sep 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2019 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2019

            Sep 16     Sep 17     Sep 18
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        3          1          3     
06-09UT        2          1          3     
09-12UT        1          1          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          2          2     
18-21UT        1          3          2     
21-00UT        2          3          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2019

              Sep 16  Sep 17  Sep 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2019

              Sep 16        Sep 17        Sep 18
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.