:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Jan 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 18-Jan 20 2022 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 18-Jan 20 2022

            Jan 18     Jan 19     Jan 20
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        3          1          1     
06-09UT        2          1          1     
09-12UT        3          1          1     
12-15UT        2          1          2     
15-18UT        2          1          2     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        2          2          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2022

              Jan 18  Jan 19  Jan 20
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2022

              Jan 18        Jan 19        Jan 20
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.