:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2019 Nov 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 11-Nov 13 2019 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 11-Nov 13 2019

            Nov 11     Nov 12     Nov 13
00-03UT        0          3          2     
03-06UT        1          3          1     
06-09UT        2          2          1     
09-12UT        3          2          1     
12-15UT        4          2          1     
15-18UT        3          1          1     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        4          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2019

              Nov 11  Nov 12  Nov 13
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2019

              Nov 11        Nov 12        Nov 13
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.