:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2021 Dec 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 01-Dec 03 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 01-Dec 03 2021

            Dec 01     Dec 02     Dec 03
00-03UT        5 (G1)     1          3     
03-06UT        4          2          4     
06-09UT        3          2          2     
09-12UT        2          1          2     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        1          2          3     
18-21UT        1          3          4     
21-00UT        2          3          3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected due to CH
activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2021

              Dec 01  Dec 02  Dec 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2021

              Dec 01        Dec 02        Dec 03
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.