:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jan 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 27-Jan 29 2023 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 27-Jan 29 2023

             Jan 27       Jan 28       Jan 29
00-03UT       2.67         2.00         1.67     
03-06UT       3.00         2.67         1.33     
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         1.33     
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       1.00         2.33         1.67     
21-00UT       1.33         2.33         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2023

              Jan 27  Jan 28  Jan 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 26 2023 1306 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2023

              Jan 27        Jan 28        Jan 29
R1-R2           25%           20%           10%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on Jan 27, with a slight chance on Jan 28-29, from a region that has
rotated around the west limb.