:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2019 Dec 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 15-Dec 17 2019 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 15-Dec 17 2019

            Dec 15     Dec 16     Dec 17
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        1          1          1     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2019

              Dec 15  Dec 16  Dec 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2019

              Dec 15        Dec 16        Dec 17
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.