:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Aug 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2022 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2022

            Aug 14     Aug 15     Aug 16
00-03UT        3          1          2     
03-06UT        2          2          1     
06-09UT        2          2          1     
09-12UT        2          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          1          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2022

              Aug 14  Aug 15  Aug 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2022

              Aug 14        Aug 15        Aug 16
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 14-16 Aug.